Arid Cereals Conference
November 13-14, 2015
Minneapolis Convention Center
Overview Program PDF (2.8MB)
Oral Presentations
Poster Presentations
Click a topic below to see related posters with links to PDFs and abstracts. Bold indicates presenter name.
An agricultural producer learning tool for the Columbia River Basin
K. Rajagopalan, C. Kruger, N. Potter, V. Walden, G. Yorgey
poster pdf
A primary factor affecting risk management for agricultural producers is weather and its variability.
At key decision points throughout the year, producers use the information available to them to make
the best possible decisions in spite of uncertainties. Decision support tools can help producers
make better informed short-term decisions about their operations, such as what to plant, when to
plant and how to manage crops under variable weather conditions. Such tools can be adapted to
be used as learning tools. Learning tools can help producers evaluate past operational decisions, or
explore the possible future impacts of long-term strategic decisions before they are actually made.
For example, drawing on historical and future climate projections, a producer might explore what
the future climate normal and extremes might be, look at historical analogs for a specific scenario,
or explore adaptation strategies. A prototype learning tool has been assembled for the Columbia
River Basin in the Pacific Northwest US. The goals are: Visualize historical climate and crop yield
data in a format that is relevant for producers. Provide access to short-term and seasonal weather
forecasts that can be viewed in the context of historical data. Provide a learning tool that gives
producers the flexibility to evaluate what if scenarios with respect to operational decisions made
in the recent past. Provide a learning tool for producers to visualize what future climate projections
look like, identify historical analogs and evaluate adaptation alternatives. Although the current
prototype focuses on weather and climate-based visualizations, the framework can be expanded to
include other aspects that impact producer decisions. There is also potential to integrate what we
learn through on-going regional earth system modeling partnerships in the Columbia River basin
to enrich the toolkit and help producers make informed decisions that prepare them to adapt to a
changing climate.
A grower case study approach for transdisciplinary integration and technology transfer
K. Painter, G. Yorgey, K. Borrelli, E. Brooks, C. Kruger, N. Ward
poster pdf
Large interdisciplinary projects face many challenges, from encouraging the necessary interaction
among scientists to achieve transdisciplinary interaction, to stakeholder engagement, to farm-level
technology transfer. Focusing on one grower’s farm at a time using a case study approach has
provided a successful platform for these needs. Twelve growers were asked to participate in case
studies for the Regional Approaches to Climate Change for Pacific Northwest Agriculture (REACCH)
project, based on a number of criteria, including focal practice, location of farm, applicability to
others, and grower personalities. Participants were identified based on their unique practices or
approaches to topics of interest. The process began with a phone call to the grower(s) to describe
the process and discuss the project. Next, in-person on-farm interviews were conducted with
a small team that included a videographer and two or three REACCH scientists. A scripted set
of questions was prepared for each interview, although the interviews were allowed to follow
their own dynamics. The final product from these interviews included a video presentation and
an accompanying multi-university bulletin. The process of creating this multi-media output was
lengthy. Each interview was fully transcribed for reference. The focal topic was addressed within the
bulletin as a story featuring a farm, a family, and a specific place. Additional topics were addressed
in a transdisciplinary manner as sidebars. For example, one sidebar provides details on hydrological
monitoring, including soil electrical conductivity measurements and infrared imagery, and explains
potential farm-level implications. Another sidebar provides details on fertilizer cost savings using
precision ag tools. Each case study includes inserted video segments, interactive photos and
about six sidebars. These case studies are popular features at regional ag conferences. The video
segments pique interest in the written bulletin, and the story-line approach is educational while also
accessible to diverse audiences.
Regional approaches to climate change for Inland Pacific Northwest cereal production systems
S. Eigenbrode, J. Abatzoglou, I. Burke, J. Antle, E. Brooks, S. Capalbo, P. Gessler, D. Huggins, J. Johnson-Maynard, C. Kruger, B. Lamb, S. Machado, P. Mote, K. Painter, W. Pan, S. Petrie, T. Paulitz, C. Stöckle, J. Velez, V. Walden, J.D. Wulfhorst, K. Wolf
poster pdf
The long-term environmental and economic sustainability of agriculture in the Inland Pacific
Northwest (northern Idaho, north central Oregon, and eastern Washington) depends upon
improving agricultural management, technology, and policy to enable adaptation to climate change
and to help realize agriculture’s potential to contribute to climate change mitigation. To address
this challenge, three land-grant institutions (Oregon State University, the University of Idaho and
Washington State University) (OSU, UI, WSU) and USDA Agricultural Research Service (ARS) units are
partners in a collaborative project - Regional Approaches to Climate Change for Pacific Northwest
Agriculture (REACCH-PNA). The overarching goal of REACCH is to enhance the sustainability of
Inland Pacific Northwest (IPNW) cereal production systems under ongoing and projected climate
change while contributing to climate change mitigation. Supporting goals include; Develop and
implement sustainable agricultural practices for cereal production within existing and projected
agroecological zones throughout the region as climate changes; Contribute to climate change
mitigation through improved fertilizer, fuel, and pesticide use efficiency, increased sequestration
of soil carbon, and reduced greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions consistent with the 2030 targets set
by the USDA National Institute for Food and Agriculture (NIFA); Work closely with stakeholders
and policymakers to promote science-based agricultural approaches to climate change adaptation
and mitigation; Increase the number of scientists, educators, and extension professionals with the
skills and knowledge to address climate change and its interactions with agriculture. The poster
provides an overview of the specific goals of this project and activities that are being pursued to
achieve them. More information about the project can be found at: http://reacchpna.org.
Adaption of downy brome to climate change within the small-grain production region of the Pacific Northwest
N. Lawrence, I. Burke
poster pdf
Downy brome (Bromus tectorum L.), a common weed in the Pacific Northwest (PNW) of the
United States, was selected to model physiological and ecological response to climate change.
To phenotype downy brome phenology, ninety five downy brome and one ripgut brome (Bromus
diandrus Roth.) accessions were transplanted as seedlings to common gardens located near Central
Ferry, WA and Pullman, WA in November of 2012 and 2013. Panicles were collected from each
replicate weekly at the onset of flowering. Seeds were removed from panicles and planted in a
greenhouse to determine if seed was physiologically mature. Germination of downy brome seeds
was regressed against cumulative growing degree days (GDD) (base 0 C) at time of collection using
a two-parameter log-logistic model to estimate GDD required to produce mature seed. Phenology
differed at each common garden location but was negatively correlated to temperature, with
mature seed set occurring earlier when winter temperature was colder. Accession were clustered
together into groups of similar genotypes for analysis based upon variation in single nucleotide
polymorphisms. Population clusters matured, relative to each other, in the same order at each
study location, suggesting a strong genetic control of phenology. As downy brome growth stage
can influence the efficacy of herbicides, variation in phenology between population clusters may
have management implications. Utilizing 14 climate models that adequately captured the historical
characteristics of the PNW climate, the calendar date at which 50% of seeds were physiologically
mature was reached from 1950-2005 was compared to the projected mean calendar date from
2031-2060. Projected date that 1,000 GDD was reached occurred 10-30 days earlier in the year.
The interaction of earlier downy brome development and increased spring moisture may interfere
with ability of growers to make timely applications of spring applied herbicides under future climate
projections.
How temperature and water potential affect the growth of Fusarium and Rhizoctonia pathogens of wheat
I. Aujla, T. Paulitz
poster pdf
Climate change is projected to shift the temperature regimes and type of winter precipitation in
the Pacific Northwest region of the United States. Temperature and moisture are two major factors
influencing the activity of soil-borne pathogens like Fusarium culmorum, F. pseudograminearum,
Rhizoctonia solani AG-8 and R. oryzae causing crown and root rots of wheat respectively, in the
dryland wheat production area. This study has been undertaken to decipher the influence of
temperature and water potential on the biological activities of these wheat pathogens. These
pathogens were grown on potato dextrose agar, potato dextrose broth, and wheat straw or
toothpicks adjusted to different osmotic and matric potentials (-0.13 to -10 MPa) with sodium
chloride, potassium chloride, and polyethylene glycol (PEG-8000), and incubated at temperatures
ranging from 4 to 35°C. Fusarium spp. grew optimally at 20 - 25°C and -1 to -3 MPa. A decline
in growth rate was observed at lower water potentials, but growth rates were 0.07 - 3.34 mm/
day even at -9 MPa. Rhizoctonia solani AG-8 was more restricted for optimal growth at 20-25°C
and -0.13 MPa. The optimal growth of R. oryzae occurred at 30°C and -0.13 MPa, but the growth
rate declined less compared to AG-8 with lower water potential and temperature. R. oryzae was
the only pathogen to grow at 35°C where the optimum water potential was -2 MPa, compared to
-0.13 MPa at temperatures lower than 35°C. The effect of water potential was independent of salt
composition. This study contributes to the knowledge of the biology and epidemiology of these
pathogens, and will be used in predicting their potential distribution under future climate scenarios.
Impact of climatic factors on cereal aphid population density in the Pacific Northwest USA
E. Sadeghi, T. Davis, Y. Wu, B. Sahfii, J. Abatzoglou, S. Eigenbrode
poster pdf
Direct and indirect damages from aphids to crops are limiting factors for cereal crops in the
Pacific Northwest region of the United States (PNW-USA) as well as worldwide. At least ten aphid
species have been known to occur in cereal crops and on perennial and annual grasses within the
region. The development of sustainable integrated pest management (IPM) programs are needed
to inform ecosystem management approaches across spatial large scales. This study aimed to
evaluate climatic factors impact on four main cereal aphids in the PNW-USA. Aphid samples were
collected weekly by sweep net in 108 Regional Approaches to Climatic Change (REACCH) sites
from May to July 2011-2014. Statistical analyses to evaluate correlation structure between climate
variables and aphid densities were conducted using SAS (9.4). Cumulative degree (CDD) and
cumulative precipitation (CP) were calculated for each of the sampling sites. Significant correlations
were detected among densities of aphid species and daily climatic factors (temperature, relative
humidity), CCD, and CP within each year as well as for the data pooled across all years. We found
a trend of significant positive association between daily temperature and CDD with densities of
individual aphid species, as well as total aphid densities. Conversely, a significant trend of negative
association was observed between daily relative humidity and CP with aphid densities. The
significant correlations between CDD and aphid population densities suggest that CDD can be
used as a tool for cereal aphid IPM and prediction of inter-annual aphid abundances in cereal fields
in the Pacific Northwest regions of USA. It will be necessary to calculate CDD in multiple ecological
zones across the seasonal phenology of each aphid species to expand our current understanding.
Interactive effects of CO2 and warming on cereal leaf beetle dynamics and winter wheat yield in the Pacific Northwest USA
B. Govindan, S. Eigenbrode, C. Stöckle
poster pdf
Agricultural cropping system models used as a decision support tool to predict crop growth and
yield under different soil, climate and management scenarios most often ignore the crop loss due
to pests. Coupling crop models with pest modules can help explain the gap between potential and
actual yield. Using annual weather data for selected sites in Washington, we simulate the phenology
and feeding by cereal leaf beetle (CLB), Oulema melanopus (L.) (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae) in R
3.1 freeware and couple that output to a daily time-step winter wheat – fallow model simulated in
CropSyst. Specifically, we apply linear or nonlinear models to explicitly model the temperaturedriven
physiological processes of development (Sharpe–Schoolfield–Ikemoto model), mortality,
and reproduction as well as feeding rates of different instars, for CLB on wheat. The model was
parameterized using CLB development data from published temperature-controlled experiments,
and CLB consumption data from our own experiments. We demonstrate the utility of this model
to capture phenological dynamics and feeding behavior of CLB to explain the gaps in predicted
crop yield under ambient (400 ppm) and elevated (950 ppm) CO2 levels in the Pacific Northwest.
Cumulative yield loss by all four larval instars of CLB in the coupled model is also compared with
control (no CLB) and also at levels below or far exceeding the economic threshold. Our approach
could be used to evaluate production systems response to a range of global warming scenarios for
any foliar feeding insect pest species of any crop and consequent yield loss.
Selected technologies for sorghum protection to reduce pest losses under rain fed conditions in Gedarif State, Sudan
E. Suliman, H Salman, I. Ali, L. Yousif
poster pdf
Sorghum is attacked by various field pests throughout its growth stages and has been described
by different workers. Different insect pests species were listed; Soil diseases and different weeds
also recorded. The most serious is probably the central shootfly, Atherigona soccata (Rondani),
head covered smut, Sphacelotheca sorghi and Striga hermenthica. The experiments were
conducted at Northern area, Gedarif State, viz., University Farm (Twawa) during the 2010/2011
and 2011/2012 seasons. The objective of this research is to test selective technologies for reducing
field pests losses on dry land sorghum. The sorghum varieties Wad Ahmed (late maturing) and Arfa
Gadamak (early maturing) were sown. Gaucho 70 WS and Raxil 2 WS insecticides seed-dressings
for controlling Covered smut and central shootfly control. Two selective herbicides for controlling
broad leaves weeds e.g., (2.4.D and Glean) were applied to control Striga hermenthica and other
broad leave weeds. Hand weeding was carried out two times on for sub-plots viz., untreated
control. Urea fertilizer 1N was applied during sowing time. Regular surveys were carried out weekly
after crop emergence to record pest damage and insect population, where 25 plants of sorghum
were randomly selected from each plot and the numbers of dead-heart caused by the larvae of
A. soccata were assessed. Mean number of weed/m2 and % weed ground cover 4 weeks after
sowing also recorded. During the harvest time disease incidence and yield were recorded. Results
obtained on mean number of dead heart recorded on Arfa Gadamak variety significantly different
between treatments when compared with untreated control. Treatments treated with Raxil 2 WS
and Gaucho 70 WS did not record any dead heart, disease incidence and % damage during the
season. Treatment (Hand weeding + Gaucho 70 WS + Raxil 2 WS) recorded lowest % weed ground
cover compared with others treatments. The highest yield was obtained by treatment (2.4.D +
Glean 75 + Gaucho 70 WS + Raxil 2 WS) (3932.2 Kg/ha.).
Climate change and food production scenarios in the Teknaf Peninsula of Bangladesh
A. Rahman, M. Tani, A. Ullah
poster pdf
Bangladesh is one of the vulnerable countries to climate change. The coastal area of Bangladesh is
more prone to climate change, where agricultural production is low. The Teknaf peninsula is situated
in the corner of Bangladesh, where both forest and marine ecosystems are found in a narrow area.
High population, poverty, and climate variability are some problems. The aim of this study is to
investigate the climate change and food system in the Teknaf peninsula of Bangladesh. Weather
data were collected from Bangladesh Meteorological Department, while agricultural information
were collected from the Department of Agricultural Extension. Long-term (1984-2013) weather data
shows that annual rainfall (around 4000 mm) does not change remarkably, but its distribution has
been changed. Therefore, frequent drought is being observed. According to land distribution data,
drought is a common event that covers 23% of landmass.
Climate change and variability, and farmers’ response in Saurashtra Region of Gujarat, India
R. Jat, M. Chopda, R. Mathukia
poster pdf
The Saurashtra region of Gujarat, India comes under a typical arid and semiarid type of climate.
Groundnut-wheat is the major cropping system followed in the region. Farmers in the region were
surveyed to ascertain the adoption of climate change adaptation strategies. The survey revealed that
the farmers in the region are well aware about the changes in rainfall and temperature patterns in
the region over a period of time. Realizing the crop losses due to changing rainfall and temperature
pattern a regular phenomenon, the farmers have started to adapt by following various coping
strategies like-- harvesting of rain water through check dams (with community efforts and the help
of developmental agencies) and open wells (individual farmers); use of micro irrigation systems for
supplementary irrigation; frequent interculturing to reduce moisture losses through evaporation and
weeds; use of growth retardants; growing groundnut as a climate resilient crop during rainy season;
intercropping; diversifying crops; introducing pigeonpea as a strategic relay crop in groundnut;
changing crop geometry; use of responsive varieties; furrow irrigation to establish wide spaced
crops (e.g., cotton); mulching, farm mechanization for timely field operations, diversifying with
other farm enterprises like cattle farming and agro-forestry, etc. In the last couple of years, as an
adaptation strategy, farmers are widely shifting to underground PVC irrigation pipes from unpaved
surface irrigation channels to reduce conveyance losses of water. Many farmers are following paired
row system (two or three rows most common) in groundnut to facilitate interculturing, conserve rain
water, and introduce relay crop of pigeonpea or castor. Diversification, putting area under different
crops like groundnut, cotton, castor, cereals. etc. during rainy season, and wheat, coriander, cumin
etc. during winter season, has been identified by farmers as an important strategy to reduce climate
variability and market fluctuations related losses.
Farmers’ willingness to adopt intercrops for soil fertility management in the Lake Victoria Crescent Agro-Ecological Zone (LVCAEZ) of Uganda
B. Kyampeire, R. Kabanyoro, I. Mugisa
poster pdf
Intercropping, particularly with legumes, is a food security and soil fertility management strategy of
small-holder, resource-poor farmers in sub-Saharan Africa. Understanding the extent of and factors
affecting farmer’s willingness to adopt intercropping practices is central to decisions to promote
this practice. We assessed the socio-economic factors affecting the farmer’s choice to adopt an
emerging rice intercrop technology in the Lake Victoria Crescent Agro-ecological Zone (LVCAZ)
of Uganda. A household survey was conducted with 171 rice farmers in Kiboga, Kayunga and
Luwero districts. Logistic regression analysis was used to model the willingness of farmers to adopt
the rice intercrops. Results show that approximately 60% of the farmers are willing to adopt the
practice. The willingness to adopt is higher with higher level of education of household heads,
contact with extension agents and training, ease of access to rice seed and membership to farmer
groups. On the other hand, farmer experience with rice cultivation negatively affects willingness
to adopt the technology. The implication of our findings is that extension agents, especially the
National Agricultural Advisory Services, should work with farmer groups to create awareness of
the benefits of rice intercrops, link them with research institutions such as the National Agricultural
Research Organization to enable them access seed. The Participatory Market Chain Approaches
that have already shown success in potato value chains should be promoted so that commercial
rice farmers have alternative markets for secondary crops from the intercrops. Further studies into
the economic and social and environmental benefits of these practices are required to shed light
on their sustainability.
Integrated technologies for sorghum-legume production system to improve livelihood and adaption to climate change in Gedarif State, Sudan
E. Suliman, A. Mohamed, D. Dawoud, O. Elhassan, S.Salih, A. Yagoub
poster pdf
Sorghum, grown as a single crop by large scale farmers, is sometimes inter-cropped with legumes
by small scale farmers to provide the protein that supplements carbohydrates and starch in
sorghum. Rural families derive food, animal feed, cash and other benefits including improved soil
fertility through in situ decay of root residues and legume leaves. Field work was conducted at 6
environmental zone locations: Northern (dry area), Central (semi-dry area) and Southern (wet area)
in Gedarif State during 2011/2012 and 2012/2013. Production technologies were evaluated by (1)
improved sorghum variety (AG8 for low rainfall areas and Wad Ahmed for relatively high rainfall
areas), (2) intercropping with legume (cowpea for low rainfall areas and groundnuts for relatively
high rainfall areas), (3) water harvested by cross ridging against the slope and tied to ridges every
10 m, and (4) low micro dose of nitrogen fertilizer (15 kg urea/ha applied with the seeds at sowing).
These improved production techniques were compared with farmer practices and showed excellent
performance on grain yield and forage (increased sorghum, cow pea, and groundnuts), resulting
in improved productivity in the whole semiarid system. Sorghum grain yield increased to 2500 kg/
ha in the southern area compared with traditional farmers (500 kg/ha), in the central area, sorghum
productivity increased to 1728 kg/ha compared with traditional farmers production (225 kg/ha), and
in the northern area productivity of sorghum crop increased from 180 kg/ha to 1080 kg/ha. Data
recorded on sorghum Stover yield was significantly different between production technologies and
traditional farmer’s practices (17.5, 10.8 and 6.7 ton/ha) in southern, central and northern areas,
respectively. Groundnuts and cowpea recorded the highest yield compared to traditional farmers
yield (1500 and 1152 kg/ha) and 500 and 432 kg/ha, respectively.
Subsoil accessibility and nutrient availability in three rainfall zones in the Pacific Northwest
I. Madsen, M. Reese, T. Beard, T. Maaz, L. Port, M. Nunez, J. Huettenmoser, W. Pan
poster pdf
A greater focus on the availability of subsoil resources will became increasingly important to crop
production as climate change leads to warmer drier summers and wetter winters. Crop species, root
architecture, and soil impedance to root growth are important factors that influence the ability of
crops to access and take up nutrients from deep in the profile. Water drawdown data in soil profiles
was collected in conjunction with field trials at different rainfall locations across the Inland Pacific
Northwest. A significant portion of total water use occurred during the spring regrowth of winter
canola (90% in low and 75% in intermediate precipitation zones). Drawdown occurred throughout
the entire 5 foot profile, with more than 50% reduction of total water content in 3-5 feet between
March and harvest. Soil pits were dug in mature canola fields in three distinct precipitation zones,
within which root densities, soil physical characteristics, and nutrient profiles were spatially recorded.
A restrictive layer characterized by high bulk density, resistance, and silt content was observed in
the lowest rainfall zone. At all sites, more than 65% of roots were distributed in the subsoil beneath
the first visual pan layer. Root density was strongly and positively spatially correlated with K and
OM, but strongly and negatively spatially correlated with Na, Mg, EC, and Ca. The relationship
between root density and nutrient distribution is an important factor when assessing late season
nutrient availability. Our findings highlight the importance of subsoil quality and accessibility across
different rainfall zones within a changing climate.
The impact of water, soil fertility and conservation on sustainable cereal production in the dryland region of the Inland Pacific Northwest
R. Mahler, J.D. Wulfhorst, S. Eigenbrode
poster pdf
Five surveys conducted between 1997 and 2014 have evaluated grower attitudes and perceptions
toward water use, soil fertility and conservation practices in the Inland Pacific Northwest. In general
growers equate the surveyed attitudes and practices to sustainable cereal production. Most farmers
support both water conservation and soil conservation practices. More than two thirds of growers
have actively implemented these practices in significant components of their production systems.
Warming effects on soil carbon and nitrogen mineralization in dryland cropping systems in the Pacific Northwest
R. Ghimire, P. Bista, S. Machado
poster pdf
Climate change will influence soil organic carbon (SOC) and nitrogen (N) dynamics through their
effects on mineralizable and easily decomposable fractions of soil organic matter (SOM). We
evaluated the effects of soil warming on SOC and N mineralization in a winter wheat (Triticum
aestivum L.)-based production systems in the Pendleton long-term experiments (PLTEs). Soil
samples were collected from 0- to 10-cm and 10- to 20-cm depths of selected treatments of crop
residue, tillage fertility, and wheat-pea LTEs established in 1931, 1941, and 1964, respectively.
Undisturbed grassland, which has not been cultivated since 1931 was considered as a reference for
these comparisons. Approximately 20 g soils with moisture at field capacity were incubated in 20°C
and 30°C temperature. Soil C and N mineralization was monitored for 10 weeks. Repeated tillage,
wheat-fallow system, and warming accelerated soil C and N mineralization. Mineralizable C and N
contents were greater under reduced- and no-tillage systems than under the conventional system.
Reducing or eliminating fallow through maintenance of perennial grasses and wheat – pea (Pisum
sativum L.) rotation can increase SOC accumulation. Increasing nutrient supply through manure
and N fertilizer addition can complement to the effects of reduced and no-tillage management to
improve SOC and N accumulation and improve sustainability of winter wheat-based production
systems in the Pacific Northwest in the projected climate change.
CropSyst-Microbasin model as a tool to inform variablerate nitrogen management and dryland farm profitability
N. Ward, F. Maureira, E. Brooks, M. Yourek, C. Stöckle
poster pdf
Precision fertilizer management is a promising method to maintain high agricultural yields while
using less fertilizer inputs in the highly heterogeneous Palouse region. This study assessed the use
of CropSyst-Microbasin at a tool to inform fertilizer management practices. A highly-instrumented
field site was used to parameterize CropSyst-Microbasin. The model accurately simulated spatial
and temporal changes in soil water content, total surface runoff, and average crop yield. Fertilizer
management scenarios were conducted with an analysis of total nitrogen loss, crop yield, and
farm profitability. Simulated yields were analyzed with local costs of production and varying crop,
fertilizer, and fuel costs to examine the sensitivity of profitable fertilizer management to varying
market conditions. Hillslope scenarios demonstrate the capacity of CropSyst-Microbasin to simulate
the contribution of lateral redistribution of nitrogen to down-slope yields. Field catchment (roughly
10 hectare) simulations demonstrate the unique capacity of CropSyst-Microbasin to simulate
agricultural production on highly heterogeneous landscapes, capturing spatial and temporal
variability. Simulations and field sites were examined in conjunction with other types of production
measurements, such as NDRE-based N uptake predictions, to explore field-scale spatial and
temporal drivers of production and risk to inform precision fertilizer management on the Palouse.
Optimal estimation of phonological crop model parameters for rice (Oryza sativa)
H. Sharifi, R. Hijmans, M. Espe, B. Linquist
poster pdf
Crop phenology models are important components of crop growth models. Typically only a few
parameters of phenology models are calibrated and default cardinal temperatures are used which
can lead to a temperature-dependent systematic phenology prediction error. Our objective was
to evaluate different optimization approaches in the Oryza2000 and CERES-Rice phenology submodels
to assess the importance of optimizing cardinal temperatures on model performance
and systematic error. We used two optimization approaches: the typical single-stage (planting to
heading) and three-stage model optimization (for planting to panicle initiation, panicle initiation to
heading, and heading to physiological maturity) to simultaneously optimize all model parameters.
Data for this study were collected over three years and six locations on seven California rice cultivars.
A temperature-dependent systematic error was found for all cultivars and stages, however it was
generally small (systematic error < 2.2). Both optimization approaches in both models resulted in
only small changes in cardinal temperature relative to the default values and thus optimization of
cardinal temperatures had very small effect on systematic error and model performance. Compared
to single stage optimization, three-stage optimization had little effect on determining time to panicle
initiation or heading but significantly improved the precision in determining the time from heading
to physiological maturity. The RMSE reduced from an average of 6 to 3.3 in Oryza2000 and from
6.6 to 3.8 in CERES-Rice. With regards to systematic error, we found a trade-off between RMSE and
systematic error when optimization objective set to minimize RMSE or systematic error. Therefore,
it is important to find the limits within which the trade-offs between RMSE and systematic errors
are acceptable, especially in climate change studies where this can prevent erroneous conclusions.
Soil organic carbon dynamics in a dryland wheatfallow system: DAYCENT model simulations
P. Bista, S. Machado, R. Ghimire
poster pdf
Agricultural management practices that contribute to soil organic carbon (SOC) sequestration can
improve soil health and agricultural sustainability. We used DAYCENT model to simulate the impact
of crop residue and nutrient management practices on SOC content, and grain and residue yield
in a long-term (80 years) winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.)-summer fallow (WW-SF) systems in
Pendleton, OR. Treatments included fall burning of crop residue (FB0), no burning of cop residue
with 0 (NB0), 45 (NB45) and 90 (NB90) kg N ha-1, and addition of cattle manure (MN) and pea vines
(PV). Model performance was evaluated by comparing modeled and observed data from 1931 to
2010. The model was reasonably accurate with R2 values of 0.93, 0.95 and 0.99 for the mean of
observed and modeled grain yield, residue yield and SOC, respectively. The paired t-test results
showed the significant bias between observed and modeled SOC five out of six treatments. The
model show highest rate of SOC decrease in FB0 (24.4 g C m-2 yr-1) and an increase in MN (9.69
g C m-2 yr-1) from 1931 to 2010. DAYCENT projected that SOC loss was between 866 to 2192 g
C m-2 in different WW-SF systems except MN, where is showed SOC gain of 496 g C m-2 SOC by
2080. However, with conversion to no-tillage from 2011onwards, all treatments are projected to
gain SOC. DAYCENT results revealed that conversion to no-till can minimize the SOC loss by 17 to
47% under different treatments besides MN where SOC gain can be increased by more than 300%.
Our study suggested adaption of no-tillage system along with addition of organic amendments can
increase SOC sequestration, mitigate climate change and improve the long-term sustainability of
dryland WW-SF systems.
Uncertainties in the prediction of winter wheat response to climate change with crop-climate models
M. Ahmed, C. Stöckle, R. Nelson, S. Higgans
poster pdf
Simulations of crop yield under climate variability are subject to uncertainties, and quantification
of such uncertainties is essential for effective use of projected results in adaptation and mitigation
strategies. In this study we evaluated the uncertainties related to crop-climate models using five crop
growth simulation models (CropSyst, APSIM, DSSAT, STICS and EPIC) and 14 general circulation
models (GCMs) for 2 representative concentration pathways (RCP) of atmospheric CO2 (4.5 and 8.5
W m-2) in the Pacific Northwest (PNW), USA. The aim was to assess how different process-based
crop models could be used accurately for estimation of winter wheat growth, development and
yield. Firstly all models were calibrated for high rainfall, medium rainfall, low rainfall and irrigated
sites in the PNW using 1979 to 2010 as the baseline period. Response variables were related to
farm management and soil properties, and included crop phenology, leaf area index (LAI), biomass
and grain yield of winter wheat. All five models were run from 2000 to 2100 using the 14 GCMs
and 2 RCPs to evaluate the effect of future climate (rainfall, temperature and CO2) on winter wheat
phenology, LAI, biomass, grain yield and harvest index. Simulated time to flowering and maturity
was reduced in all models except EPIC with some level of uncertainty. All models generally predicted
an increase in biomass and grain yield under elevated CO2 but this effect was more prominent
under rain fed conditions than irrigation. However, there was uncertainty in the simulation of crop
phenology, biomass and grain yield under 14 GCMs during three prediction periods (2030, 2050
and 2070). We concluded that to improve accuracy and consistency in simulating wheat growth
dynamics and yield under a changing climate, a multimodel ensemble approach should be used.
Climate change and food security: Bridging the interaction gaps for future integrity
S. Shahin, R. Ajaj, M. Salem
poster pdf
Climate change and global warming has become a real threat to global food security, by affecting
the agricultural capability and productivity. Global population is expected to continue to increase,
thus, the world will be facing a food and hunger crisis. Food-insecure populations will be enlarged,
especially in low-income countries. The extent and diversity of climate change, make regional longterm
strategies for climate change adaptation, mitigation and impact assessment an impossible
task in the absence of the cross regional collaboration and international strategic planning.
Consequently, there is a crucial need to bridge the interaction gaps between farmers, households,
scientists and decision makers, among major hot spots including: climate information services,
seasonal forecasting, farming practices, tolerance of emerging pests and diseases, agricultural
intensification, action policies and integrated research projects. Bridging such gaps is urgently
needed in order to guarantee the future global sustainability and integrity.
Developing an agriculturally focused data management system for climate assessment, adaptation, and mitigation: regional approaches to climate change for Pacific Northwest Agriculture (REACCHPNA)
E. Seamon, P. Gessler, E. Flathers, L. Sheneman
poster pdf
Over the course of the last five years, the REACCHPNA data management effort, a cyberinfrastructure
component of REACCHPNA, a USDA funded coordinated agricultural project (USDA Award #2011-
68002-30191), has had a focus to develop modular, sustainable, and extensible systems/processes
that would allow for the collection, storing, and analyzing of REACCH-related data and content.
In support of this strategy we have built out four core systems to implement this approach. Our
http://www.reacchpna.org portal; REACCH data and analysis libraries for data discovery, analysis,
and metatagging; a THREDDS data catalog, for climate data subsetting and aggregation; and an
interactive python notebook server, to facilitate collaborative data science efforts. Supporting these
four core areas is a developed architecture that includes a three-tier server environment (data,
applications, web), a metadata cataloging server (a customized version of ESRI’s Geoportal Server),
a geospatial web server environment for web mapping services (ArcGIS Server), and a geospatial
enterprise database (PostgresQL) all interconnected to an LDAP server for unified user logins across
systems. In addition, all data is replicated/mirrored at Idaho National Laboratories (INL). Preliminary
results of the data management complication include over 1000 discrete data entries (data, surveys,
publications), with approximately 30 map services outputting dynamic, REST-enabled urls. In
addition, over 40TB of climate data has been assembled for aggregation and subsetting purposes,
that can be integrated with other non-raster based data thru REST and javascript applications.
Implementing a free, open-source data repository to support distributed interdisciplinary science
E. Flathers, P. Gessler, E. Seamon
poster pdf
The science data management system as a framework for collaboration and integration is a
relatively new tool in the interdisciplinary project toolbox. Historically, these repository systems
have been established as silos: each research lab might establish their own, proprietary model
for data management with little effort at interoperability. With the emergence of open standards
for data organization and data access services, repositories can be linked across labs, institutions,
and disciplines across the world to help enable a new, open science based upon data sharing
and remote collaboration. In the past, one of our challenges with monolithic, prepackaged data
management solutions is that customization can be difficult to implement and maintain, especially
as new versions of the software are released that are incompatible with our local codebase. Our
solution is to break the monolith up into its constituent parts, which offers us several advantages.
First, any customizations that we make are likely to fall into areas that can be accessed through
Application Program Interfaces (API) that are likely to remain stable over time, so our code stays
compatible. Second, as components become obsolete or insufficient to meet new demands that
arise, we can replace the individual components with minimal effect on the rest of the infrastructure,
causing less disruption to operations. The modular approach also leads to other advantages in
both IT and science goals for the repository. In this poster, we illustrate our application of the
Service Oriented Architecture (SOA) design paradigm to assemble a data repository that conforms
to the Open Archival Information System (OAIS) Reference Model primarily using a collection of
free and open-source software. We detail the design and implementation of the repository, based
upon common preservation practice and open standards that support interoperability with other
institutions systems and with future versions of our own software components.
Are seed banks a viable option for drought risk management in South Asia?
A. Chhetri, P. Aggarwal, S. Sehgal
poster pdf
Drought is a primary constraint for cereal production systems in South Asia, where more than
60% of agricultural land is rain fed. Any prolonged drought event can severely impact agricultural
production and food security. Seed banks can serve as emergency seed supply systems when
farmers face a shortage of seeds due to failure of crops as a result of extreme climatic events such
as floods and droughts. Maintenance of seed banks where extreme climatic events frequently occur
could help farmers to establish crops quickly in the same season or the next season in case crops
are destroyed. Research is needed in terms of (a) how much agricultural areas would have the
requirement of seed banks, (b) what would be the return period for use of seed from such banks,
(c) which crop’s seed and varieties should be stored in a given location, and (d) will maintenance
of seed bank be economically viable. Our study used a multi-disciplinary research methodology
involving subjects of climatology, GIS, agronomy and economics for three distinct activities. This
study indicates that the maximum frequency of seed bank requirement under any scenario is 15-
20%, i.e., seed bank is required once in 5 to 7 years. About 90% of the study grids may require
seed banks once in 15 years or more. The maximum number of grids which may require seed banks
once in 5-7 years for climate risk preparedness lies in India. Afghanistan, Bhutan and Nepal may
not require seed banks. The choice of main crops and/or alternate crops seeds for storage in the
seed bank depends on agro-ecological conditions and timing and length of drought during the
cropping season. In the areas with prolonged drought after few weeks of crop sowing, seed banks
may require to established alternate crops on revival of rainfall.
Drought impact on rice production in northwest region of Bangladesh
A. Rahmam, M. Tani
poster pdf
Bangladesh is one of the most vulnerable countries to climate change. Though most parts of
Bangladesh are more or less prone to adverse impacts of climate change, the northwest region is
particularly sensitive because of prolonged drought conditions. With climate change, more area
would be exposed to severe droughts because of projected change in rainfall pattern and dry spell
frequencies. Bangladesh is an agricultural country and rice is the main crop, which requires large
amounts of water. The aim of this study was to assess the seasonal drought condition and its impact
on rice production in the northwest region, which is considered a drought prone area. Long-term
rainfall (1964-2011) data was collected from Bangladesh Meteorological Department. Data on the
area and production were collected from the Department of Agricultural Extension. Standardized
precipitation index (SPI) is widely used as a direct approach in comparison with other drought
indices because of its simple and useful application. Long-term data showed a decreasing trend
of rainfall, which were 1.64, 1.60 and 0.38 mm for aus, aman and boro rice seasons, respectively.
The SPI values indicate frequent drought in recent years, particularly during boro season. It was
observed that seasonal drought was responsible for yield loss by 18, 21 and 11% during aman,
aus and boro seasons respectively. Drought during aus and aman seasons hamper rice production
as those rice seasons are rain fed. On the contrary, drought during boro season increases the
dependency on creating environmental problems, increasing production cost and decreasing food
quality by contamination heavy metals. Suitable technologies and varieties should be introduced to
sustain the rice production in northwest part of Bangladesh under changing climate.
Impacts of climate change on irrigated agriculture through water rights curtailment
K. Rajagopalan, K. Chinnayakanahalli, G. Yorgey, M. Brady, C. Stöckle, J. Adam
poster pdf
Irrigated agriculture is impacted by climate change both directly and indirectly. Warmer temperatures
and elevated CO2 levels directly impact the plant growth cycle and potential crop yields. In addition
to this, indirect effects include factors such as changes in water availability for irrigation, particularly
in snowmelt dominated regions. This is especially relevant in regions that exercise irrigation
water rights curtailment in times of shortages, e.g., to maintain environmental flows. The relative
magnitudes and directions of both the direct and indirect effects will determine the net impact
climate change has on agricultural production in such regions. We examine the indirect impacts
of climate change in the 2030s on irrigated agricultural production in the Washington state part
of the Columbia River Basin, using a coupled crop-hydrology model in conjunction with a water
management model that includes an approximation of water rights curtailment in the region. The
indirect effects are also considered relative to the direct impacts of climate change on agricultural
production. Results indicate that although future curtailment rates are expected to be higher than
historical conditions, the effects of curtailment on crop yields are not correspondingly larger in
the future. Impacts are crop dependent and depend on the timing of curtailment in relation to
crop growth stage. Earlier onset of crops and accelerated growing degree day accumulation under
warmer future climate alter the crop growth cycle leading to interesting impacts of curtailment on
agricultural production.
Implications of wetter and warmer future climates on the soil water availability in the Palouse
E. Brooks, N. Ward, A. Wardall
poster pdf
With climate models suggesting that winter precipitation totals may increase by as much 75 mm
(3 inches) by the latter half of the 21st century, there is the potential for major changes in the way
cropping systems are managed in the dryland grain producing regions of the Pacific Northwest.
Drier, warmer summers lead to earlier plant dates and rapid drying however wetter winters provide
greater offseason soil water recharge potentially providing greater availability of soil water to
dryland crops. In this project we examine the impacts of future climates at three climate zones within
the Pacific Northwest and demonstrate the positive and negative effects of increased precipitation
and temperature on future cropping systems. Crop modeling results suggest that the increase in
precipitation in some areas will lead to a net increase in spring soil water, potentially increasing the
portion of the region implementing annual cropping, despite overall warming temperatures which
suggest increased fallow practices. This analysis implies that the impact of climate change on the
cropping systems in the Palouse region will be more sensitive to changes in precipitation than to
air temperature. Assumptions of this approach and future implications of these analysis will be
discussed.
Simulating optimal productivity for winter wheat under variable soil moisture regimes for Pacific Northwest USA
A. Misra, C. Stöckle, B. Govindan
poster pdf
Irrigation water requirements are considered the most important limiting factor for efficient use of
water resources and optimizing the crop yield under changing future climatic conditions. Scarce and
uncertain information exists on soil water availability into the future for any region and hence crop
simulation modeling can be an efficient and cost effective technique to estimate the crop irrigation
water requirement. We identified four locations viz., George, Sunnyside, Othello and Imbler having
at least 12 years of daily weather data from the Inland Pacific Northwest region of the USA during
the winter wheat growing season. Amounts of average rainfall during the cropping season in these
locations ranged from 197.53 mm to 378.85 mm. A calibrated and validated CropSyst model
for these locations was run for winter wheat to develop response curves of leaf area index (LAI),
biomass production and yield for different irrigation levels. The crop production function (CPF)
allowed simulating irrigation events as a function of soil water level ranging from a completely rain
fed to a fully irrigated scenario. Simulation outputs suggest optimal crop productivity at 60% soil
water level in locations with high rainfall viz. Othello and Imbler. No significant increase in grain
yield and biomass were observed at high rain fall locations with further enhancement in irrigation
water levels. In contrast, in low rain fall sites viz. Sunnyside and George, crop productivity was
optimized only when 80% or more soil water level was provisioned.
Developing heat tolerant and climate resilient wheat
K. Gill, A. Mohan
poster pdf
Climate change, particularly the heat stress, poses a serious challenge to the wheat production,
which needs to double by 2050 in order to meet the food demand of the growing population.
Every 1°C rise in temperature above the optimal results in wheat yield losses of up to 3-4%. By
the end of the 21st century, global annual mean temperature, including South Asia, is projected
to go up by 4°C, thus adversely affecting the wheat production in most of fertile Indo-Gangetic
plains. Therefore, improving wheat heat tolerance is crucial in today’s context. As a public-private
partnership, ‘Feed the Future Innovation Lab’ has been setup with the funding from USAID,
DBT, ICAR, and BIRAC with a goal to develop climate resilient wheat cultivars by combining all
available information, tools, and technologies. Evaluation of heat tolerant material from around
the globe both under controlled as well as field conditions showed extensive natural variation for
the trait, although, only few lines maintained ‘normal’ productivity at 30°C. A short period of heat
stress during germination had serious and long-term effect on plant development and yield. A
ten-day heat stress at germination reduced germination percentage, coleoptile length, and yield.
Sugars availability maybe a reason for the effect on germination as external application of sucrose
showed significant recovery in germination percentage and coleoptile length. Heat stress during
vegetative phase significantly affected tiller number, flowering time, pollen fertility, plant height and
yield. During the reproductive stage, heat stress adversely affected photosynthesis and increased
membrane disintegration due to decreased chlorophyll index, increased ROS and lipid peroxidase
activity. The identified heat tolerant lines will be used to transfer the trait into wheat cultivars by
marker assisted background selection combined with simultaneous detection and utilization of
QTLs. Various molecular and physiological studies for the trait are underway and an update will be
presented.
Nitrous oxide response to nitrogen fertilizer in irrigated spring wheat in the Yaqui Valley, Mexico
N. Millar, K. Khamark, A. Urrea, P. Robertson, I. Ortiz-Monasterio
poster pdf
The Yaqui Valley, one of Mexico’s major breadbaskets, encompasses 225,000 hectares of cultivated,
irrigated cropland, up to 75% of which is planted to spring wheat annually. Nitrogen (N) fertilizer
applications to this crop have nearly doubled since the 1980s, and currently average around 300
kg N ha-1. A substantial component of total production costs, these rates also result in significant
N losses to the environment via leaching and gaseous emissions. Nitrous oxide (N2O), a potent
greenhouse gas (GHG) is produced naturally by microbial denitrification and nitrification. Emissions
increase following soil management activities, especially fertilizer N application, and particularly
when this input exceeds crop requirement. Our major objectives are to 1) investigate tradeoffs
between fertilizer N input, spring wheat yield, and N2Oemissions, to inform management strategies
that can mitigate N2O emissions without compromising productivity and economic return, and 2)
explore opportunities for farmers to take advantage of global carbon markets, and generate income
from improved N management practices they adopt. Manual chambers were used to observe N2O
fluxes from spring wheat at five N inputs (0, 80, 160, 240, and 280 kg N ha-1) during two growing
seasons at CIMMYT in Ciudad Obregon, Sonora, Mexico. Average daily N2O fluxes were 2.1 to
14.4 g N2O-N ha-1 day-1, with lower emissions at N rates below or close to those that optimized
yield, and substantially higher emissions at N rates beyond where yield optimization occurred.
The exponential response, consistent with other crops, suggests large decreases in N2O flux are
possible with lower N inputs and without negative yield impacts. With fertilizer use patterns in Yaqui
Valley a likely gauge for high-productivity irrigated cereal systems elsewhere, our results provide
evidence for a win-win-win scenario; large reductions in agricultural GHG emissions, increased
farmer income, and maintained or even improved productivity.
REACCH Monitoring objective: Assessing dynamics of carbon dioxide, water vapor, and nitrous oxide at multiple agricultural ecosystems in the Inland Pacific Northwest
B. Lamb, S. Waldo, J. Chi, S. Pressley, P. O’Keeffe
poster pdf
Local meteorology, crop management practices and site characteristics have important impacts on
carbon, water, and nitrogen cycling in agricultural ecosystems. Future climate projections for some
regions (e.g. Inland Pacific Northwest (IPNW) of the U.S.) show a likely increase in temperature and
significant reductions in precipitation that will affect agricultural carbon, water, and nitrogen cycling.
Agriculture is highly dependent on climate, yet it is also a primary contributor of the greenhouse
gases nitrous oxide (N2O) and methane (CH4). Agricultural fields can be net carbon dioxide (CO2)
sinks or sources depending on management practices and climatic conditions. Therefore, there is
a critical need to quantify greenhouse gases (GHGs) in different agricultural ecosystems to better
understand their distribution, cycles, and how they are impacted by ongoing climate change. The
REACCH project is investigating the feedbacks between agricultural ecosystems and climate change
in the IPNW region by assessing carbon, water, and N2O dynamics in multiple cropping systems
using micrometeorological methods. Our team has installed five flux towers at sites representing
different agroecological classes across the region that continuously monitor fluxes of CO2, H2O,
and energy, totalling eleven site-years of results as of October 2014. Two of the flux towers are
also outfitted to monitor N2O emissions, using both micrometeorological methods and an array of
automated chambers. We found that all five sites were net CO2 sinks over the measurement period,
with cumulative sink strengths ranging from 63 to 326 g C m-2 yr-1. However, the N2O results indicate
that emissions are higher than the IPCC Tier 1 estimate, at 3-6 kg N2O-N ha-1 yr-1.
Rotational nitrogen and water use efficiencies in intensified and diversified cropping systems across the precipitation gradient of Eastern Washington
T. Maaz, L. Port, W. Pan, I. Madsen, F. Young, A. Esser
poster pdf
Rotational estimates of nitrogen (N) and water use are needed to assess the impacts of rotational
designs as long-term strategies to improve efficiencies. Typically, nitrogen use efficiency (NUE) and
water use efficiency (WUE) are calculated for a single season rather than across multiple years, which
ignore potential carry-over from one season to the next. We constructed N and water balances
across the precipitation gradient of Eastern WA (including the irrigation, low, intermediate, and high
rainfall zones) to (1) quantify unaccounted for N and rotational NUE and (2) determine differences
in water use with crop intensification and diversification across the region. In an integrated regional
study, we found higher N recoveries than reported in literature in the low rainfall zones, even with
continuous cropping in grain-fallow region. Because of higher inputs in the intensified rotations,
improvements can be still made to reduce unaccounted for N. Nitrogen carry-over from fertilizer
and cover crops to subsequent crops was observed across the region, which demonstrates the
importance of crop rotation and fertilization. Subsoil storage and extraction are essential for overall
efficiencies of water and N, thus illustrating the need for routine testing and accounting of subsoil
N and water content.
AgBiz Logic™: An economic, financial and environmental decision tool for farmers, ranchers and land managers
C. Seavert, L. Houston, J. Way, S. Capalbo
poster pdf
The Earth’s climate is warming and will continue to warm throughout the next century. This has
the potential to affect agriculture worldwide both positively (e.g., longer growing seasons) and
negatively (e.g., increased heat stress) depending on the commodity (e.g., crop, livestock) and
location. This poster presents a decision support tool called AgBiz Logic™ which allows producers
to step into the world of 20-30 years from the present and consider how their current enterprises
and operations will continue to serve them in the future. Then they can consider if there are
any long-range planning decisions they may want to consider in order to maintain profitable
operations. AgBiz Logic™ (ABL) is a cutting-edge web application for agribusinesses designed to
help agricultural producers make short-, medium- and long-term investment decisions. This unique
application is designed to collect, manage and optimize data from a variety of sources, from balance
sheets and weather stations to site-specific zones in the field. The robust data lays the foundation
for economic, financial, and environmental decision-support tools, which enable agribusiness
professionals to make optimal choices that impact their bottom-line and environmental impacts.
A unique component of AgBiz Logic™ is AgBizClimate™, an application that provides near-term
climate change projections for average weather conditions relevant to agricultural commodities in
a specific region. This tool allows producers to adjust their investments, commodities, and yields
based on how they think such changes will affect their particular production process.
Assessment of climate change on trend of maize (Zea mays) yield in southwestern Nigeria
F. Oni, T. Odekunle
poster pdf
Maize is the most important cereal crop in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) and an important staple food.
Africa produces 6.5% of maize worldwide and the largest African producer is Nigeria with nearly
8 million tons, followed by South Africa, however, most maize production in Africa is rain fed.
Thus, formulating practical, affordable and acceptable response strategies for maize production
in Nigeria requires a study that evaluates the impacts of climate change on maize under varying
climatic conditions over a period of twenty years in the southwestern Nigeria. Yield data of
maize for twenty years (1983-2003) was sourced from the International Agricultural, Research and
Teaching (IAR&T) Institute, Ibadan, Oyo state, Nigeria. Corresponding climatic data (minimum and
maximum temperature, solar radiation and rainfall) for the period was obtained from the Nigeria
Meteorological Agency (NIMET), Oshodi, Nigeria. The data set was smoothened and adjusted for
appropriate statistical analysis to generate a model that could be adopted for seasonal planning
and future yield optimization of Zea mays in the region. Keywords: Zea mays, climate change, yield
optimization, southwestern Nigeria.
Climate change impacts and adaption of Pacific Northwest wheat systems
J. Antle, E. Mu, H. Zhang, C. Stöckle
poster pdf
This study examines how wheat production systems in the Inland Pacific Northwest respond, and
maybe adapt, to climate change, under plausible future biophysical and socio-economic conditions.
The analysis combines future climate and socio-economic scenarios with results of crop model
simulations in an economic assessment model called TOA-MD. This model is used to average
the impacts of climate change on the economic vulnerability of wheat producing farms, and how
this vulnerability can be reduced through cropping system and management adaptations. Results
show that the average impact of climate change is likely to be positive in this region but due to
the heterogeneity of the wheat production system across farms under future climate conditions,
a substantial proportion of farms could still be vulnerable to losses from climate change due to
variations in weather, biophysical and socio-economic conditions. Secondly; while there is a high
degree of uncertainty associated with climate change and with future scenarios, it is clear that
the overall impact as well as the degree of vulnerability will depend substantially on future socioeconomic
conditions as well as climate change and farmers adaptation strategies.
Cover crops and drought: Implications for climate resilience
M. Hunter, D. Mortensen
poster pdf
Cover crops are a potential climate adaptation tool, helping buffer soils against degradation during
extreme precipitation events. However, it is less clear how cover crops will interact with drought,
another projected effect of climate change. Therefore, it is important to consider potential cover
crop impacts on cash crop drought physiology. I report results from two years of a field study
investigating maize (Zea mays) responses to drought imposed following a functionally diverse set of
cover crop treatments. Maize was grown in rotation with soybean (Glycine max) and wheat (Triticum
aestivum) in a full-till organically managed system in central Pennsylvania. I am testing the following
hypothesis: Cover crops affect the following cash crop’s physiological responses to drought by
a) transpiring soil water in the spring and b) altering nitrogen cycling and availability during the
cash crop window. Preliminary results indicate that cover crop transpiration did not affect maize
available water due to sufficient spring precipitation. However, cover crop effects on nitrogen (N)
availability exerted strong control over maize drought responses. An ANCOVA with early-season
chlorophyll meter readings and drought treatment explains 74% of the variation in kernel yield for
year 1 (p < 0.001). Cover crops with higher C:N ratio biomass exacerbated corn drought stress due
to N immobilization, while cover crops with lower C:N ratios mitigated drought stress due to N
mineralization. These results have implications for cover cropping and N management strategies
under climate change.
Creating a framework to assess climate change impacts on agriculture and transportation in the Upper Mississippi River Valley
M. Miller, D. Vimont, A. Morales, J. Camp
poster pdf
A reoccurring challenge with increasing fuel prices is optimization of multi- and inter-modal freight
transport to move products most efficiently. The experience of supply chain actors, projections for
the future of agriculture in the U.S. and regional climate models indicate a shift in warm temperatures
northward and potential shift in agricultural growing seasons and conditions for optimized crop
yield. We expect to see changes in global markets for commodity crops, as well as national markets
for animal feed and biofuels. Conservation challenges, especially due to extreme spring rainfall
events and volatile temperature change, may also impact production decisions. This leads to a
potential change in how much, where and with what fuel freight will be needed to move these
crops in the future. Given recent history, we are already experiencing changes in regional weather
trends and growing seasons likely due to climate change and these can be used as indicators of
future changes. It would be beneficial for freight carriers to have an awareness of likely farmer and
supply chain response to changes, and where and to what extent fleets will be needed to continue
export of grains from the upper Midwest to the rest of the U.S. and the world. This project seeks to
use recent historical climate, crop information and the input of supply chain actors, combined with
regional climate modeling and other tools to project forward the demands on freight transportation
for the upper Midwest grain distribution in the future.
Is rain fed wheat productivity vulnerable to climate change?
M. Aslam, M. Ahmed, F. Hassan, R. Hayat, C. Stöckle
poster pdf
Climate change impacts on crop productivity have threatened global food security. Global climate
change continues to be a major concern in this century, and temperature is the main signal of the
change on both global and regional scales. Wheat yield might be adversely effected by increase
in seasonal temperature. The changing climate is adversely effecting wheat yield in rain fed areas
of Pakistan. In the current study three crop simulation models (CropSyst, APSIM and DSSAT) were
calibrated to ensure food security. The objective of the model comparison was to examine how
different simulation models act at varying climatic locations across Pakistan when given minimal
information for model validation and calibration. To calibrate crop models, the field experiment was
carried out at three varying climatic conditions (high, medium and low rainfall) of Pothwar, Pakistan.
The field experiment was laid out using RCBD four way factorial design. The treatments were four
sowing times (21 Oct, 11 Nov, 1st Dec and 21 Dec), three varying climatic locations (Islamabad,
Koont and Talagang), five wheat genotypes (NARC-2009, AUR-809, Pak-13, Chakwal-50 and Dhurabi)
and the experiment was repeated for two years (2013-14 and 2014-15). The results showed that
models performed very well for all study parameters. Highest grain yield (4.050 t/ha) recorded at
Islamabad (High rainfall and low temperature) under optimum sowing time during second growing
season while lowest grain yield recorded at Talagang (low rainfall and high temperature) under
late sowing (1.28 t/ha). Less wheat yield production was a clear evidence of vulnerability of wheat
crop to climate change. Meanwhile, models simulated results will be compared with observed
data to utilized crop models as decision support tools for rain fed wheat production in Pakistan.
Furthermore scenario analysis will also be conducted to design adaptation strategies for wheat crop
in the context of climate variability.
Physiological characteristics and yield improvement by Arbuscular mycorrhizal fungus in wheat under terminal warm environment
K. Sharma, R. Gera, J. Singh
Arbuscular mycorrhizal (AM) fungi are ubiquitous root symbionts of more than 90% of vascular plants
and are thought to contribute to plant nutrition, particularly phosphorus. The field experiment was
conducted at CCS Haryana Agricultural University, Hisar. The experiment was designed in a split
plot, with wheat genotypes, WH 1021, WH 1105, WH 1123, WH 1124, WH 1158 in main plots
and seed treatment practices i.e., dry seeding, primed seed (seed soaking overnight in water),
primed seed + AM fungi (Glomus mosseae), primed seed + Azotobacter in the sub plots with
three replications under late sown situation. Glomus mosseae was introduced in the soil, and the
crop seeds were also inoculated with the fungi before seeding. The crop was planted after a presowing
irrigation, and four post sowing irrigations were applied. Physiological characters, canopy
temperature depression, membrane thermo stability and rates of photosynthesis of flag leaves
were measured after anthesis. Yield-attributes and yields were recorded at harvest. The sowing of
wheat genotypes with water primed and primed seed inoculated with AM fungi and Azotobacter
increased grain yields by 2.4, 8.1 and 3.8 % respectively over conventional practice (3998 kg/
ha) under late sown condition. The yield gains were mainly due to early seedling emergence and
vigour, more numbers of spikes per plant and higher biomass and improved physiological traits like
higher membrane stability and photosynthetic efficiency of flag leaf during anthesis. Among the
genotypes, WH 1105 followed by WH 1158 showed significantly higher yield (4315 and 4278 kg/
ha) respectively over the other tested genotypes/varieties due to higher membrane stability, more
tillering and test weight. The increase in seed yield by seed priming and AM fungi was positively
associated with days to emergence and heading, membrane stability and photosynthetic rate.
The impacts of climate changes on agriculture and patterns of human migration in Gedarif State, Eastern Sudan
E. Suliman, K. Ali, H. Salman, N. Elhag
The experiments were conducted in Gedarif State, Eastern Sudan to study the impact of climate
change on human migration in Eastern Sudan during the period 2008-2014. The results showed
that the productivity of sorghum has decreased in the southern parts of the state from 1500 kg/
ha in the 1970s to less than 410.4 kg/ha at the present time (2014). Additionally, sesame crop
productivity has decreased from 1750 kg/ha to 278.4 kg/ha in 2014. In the northern parts of the
State, sorghum production has decreased from 1050 kg/ha in the 1970s to 425 kg/ha in 2013.
Increasing rates of out-migration from the region to the city of Gedarif and other cities in Sudan has
increased rapidly. Immigration to the region has declined and the rate of annual population growth
in the region has also declined, from 5.3% from 1983-1993 to 1.2% from 1993-2013. Populations
may be migrating because the upper portions of the soil were removed by wind and water runoff
(reducing soil productivity and food production sustainability) and deposited in the low lands.
Additionally, increasing proportions of sand, especially in the northern parts, and increasing loss
of surface water (excavations - rivers - coves - Maat) by evaporation were observed. Other factors
recorded that could account for this change include imbalance in values and social systems and
high crime rates. The conflicts between residents, farmers, pastoralists and invading nomads from
Ethiopia and Eritrea were also recorded.
The impact of climate change on water and nitrogen deficits for maize production in East and Southern Africa
G. Alagarswamy, J. Olson, J. Andersen, N. Moore, J. Maitima, W. Otim-Nape, P. Thornton, P. Yanda
poster pdf
Warming temperatures and altered precipitation patterns are expected to affect productivity of
maize, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa where water and nitrogen deficits already severely restrict
harvests. This study examines impact of climate change on water and nitrogen deficits for maize
productivity across East and Southern Africa, and tests the potential of management practices.
The study region ranges from near-deserts in northern Kenya to savannas in Tanzania and Uganda,
and extremely humid areas in Zambia. Coupled climate and the CERES Maize model embedded
in DSSAT v. 4.0 were calibrated for the region, and point and spatial modeling were conducted
using locally grown maize varieties. Historical climate data sets (observed, CHIRPS and WorldClim)
and four GCMs downscaled to 6 km were used. Results include maps of where water and nitrogen
deficits are expected to change, and potential benefits of management practices. Climate change
will generally reduce yields due to warmer temperatures and higher water demand. However the
study identified dry locations that will still have moderate temperatures and where lowering water
deficits would have large yield benefits. Similarly, yield benefits to nitrogen fertilizer are expected to
decline across large areas since fertilizer’s ability to raise yields diminishes with higher water deficits.
In wet zones, however, negative effects of climate change are related to more severe precipitation
events leading to worsening nitrogen leaching. Multiple rather than single doses of nitrogen reduce
yield variability and increase yield under these situations.
Tillage and residue retention influences on wheat grain yield and soil moisture content in groundnut-wheat cropping systems in semiarid western India
R. Jat, R. Solanki, N. Jain
poster pdf
Climate change and variability has emerged as one of the major challenges to agriculture in the
semiarid tropics (SAT) of India. A field experiment was initiated during kharif, 2012 to evaluate
the effects of three tillage practices viz. conventional tillage (CT), minimum tillage (MT), and zero
tillage (ZT); and three residue management practices viz. no residue application (NR), wheat residue
application (WR), and wheat residue application+Cassia tora mulch (WCR) on moisture availability
and yield of wheat in wheat-groundnut cropping system at ICAR-Directorate of Groundnut Research,
Junagadh, India. The experiment was laid out in split plot design with three replications. The soil
moisture content was measured in 0-15 cm depth at different growth stages of wheat following
the gravimetric method during 2013-14 and 2014-15. The wheat grain yield was measured from
three strips of 3x5 m each for each treatment plot, and was converted into kg/ha. During 2013-14
CT-NR gave highest grain yield of wheat whereas in 2014-15 ZT-WR gave highest wheat grain yield
which was 35.9 % higher compared to CT-NR. The mean data of 2013-14 and 2014-15 revealed
that MT-WCR and ZT-WCR had higher soil moisture percentage as compared to CT-WCR and other
treatments during wheat growing period, however, difference was significant with CT-NR, MT-NR
and ZT-NR only (P<0.05). It indicates that minimum and zero tillage are effective in improving soil
moisture content when combined with surface retention of crop residues and other biomass. By
outstretching moisture availability over a greater period, minimum and zero tillage along with
residue retention, may help to reduce water stress related impacts of climate change and variability
on wheat crop, and stabilize/improve yield in semiarid tropical regions of western India.
Thermal regime agronomic experiment
G. Wall, L. Olivieri, M. Conely, K. West, J. Turner, B. Kimball
poster pdf
Global warming will alter thermal regimes of the Earth’s major cereal grain production regions.
Therefore, a need exists to elucidate thermal tolerant mechanisms in cereal grain crops and to what
extent genetic controls are available for adaptation. Globally, semiarid desert regions experience
some of the widest ranges in high temperatures over the course of a year. So, intra- and interannual
variations in natural temperature provide a cost effective means to obtain robust data set
for multiple cereal grain crops simultaneously. We intend to stagger planting dates from the normal
cropping season in December to be at closer intervals in the April-May time frame to refine crop
model thermal response curves at higher temperatures. Experimental artifacts such as photoperiod,
soil properties, vapor pressure deficit, precipitation, and solar radiation are unavoidable, and may
complicate interpretation of thermal response. Nevertheless, use of day-neutral cultivars without a
vernalization requirement will minimize photoperiod effects and ensure floral induction regardless
of planting date. Our objectives are: (1) determine cereal grain crop responses to a wide range
of air temperature via planting date; (2) quantify crop growth; (3) evaluate and refine thermal
response on crop growth and development; (4) validate crop growth models with regard to thermal
dependent processes believed to be mediated through canopy energy balance. Study materials
include: Wheat (Tritium aestivum L.); Durum Wheat (T. durum L.); Barley (Hordeum vulgare L.);
Triticalea (xTriticumSecale) WheatxRye. Overall, 4 replicates of 4 cereal grain crops, over 8 planting
dates (4 replicates within a year to determine intra-annual variability), over 2 years (inter-annual
variability) will provide 384 differently treated crop responses over an air temperature range from
-2 to 42°C. These data will be assembled and formatted in accordance with ICASA Version 2.0
standards, and be distributed to the AgMIP-wheat team for model improvement/validation as
deemed appropriate.
Adaptation strategies to combat rice-wheat systems to climate change in Semi-arid subtropical climate of South Asia
N. Subash
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The rice (Oryza sativa L.) -wheat (Trititicumaestivum L.) cropping system is one of the largest agricultural production systems of the South Asia (SA), covering 13.5 million hectares of productive land in the Indo-Gangetic Plains (IGP) of Bangladesh, India, Nepal and Pakistan under diverse agro-climatic situations. This production system is fundamental to employment, income, and livelihoods for hundreds of millions of rural and urban poor of South Asia. Over the past 20 years, rice and wheat production have shown a tremendous increase and remained the major source of the marketed surplus of food grains for feeding the growing urban population; however, in the last decade, both crops are showing signs of stagnation or decline, even with the introduction high yielding varieties/advancement of production technology. Decline in soil fertility, changes in water-table depth, deterioration in the quality of irrigation water, rising salinity, increasing resistance to pesticides, inadequate crop and nutrient management along with occurrence of extreme events at the critical pheno-phase of the crops, climatic variability and climate change are considered as some of the general causes for the yield stagnation/decline. However, with the adaptation of site specific-farmer centric management options, the small and marginal farmers could increase the productivity and thereby secure their food/nutritional requirement and uphold/increase their livelihood.
Based on the AgMIP methodological approach, we have analysed 76 rice-wheat farms in Meerut District, which is part of the Upper Gangetic region of the IGP-India and tried to link climate-crop-socio-economic scenario of location/farmer for integrated assessment of climate change impact on agricultural productivity. The average family size of the sample households was 6.32, and average operational land holding was 1.68 hectares, which is representative of the district. Rice-wheat and sugarcane-wheat are the predominant cropping systems in the area with livestock being an integrated part of the farming system of sample households. Livestock holding is generally proportional to land holding but majority of the farmers even with tiny land holdings keep at least one milch. Based on the stakeholders interactions at various levels, the adaptation strategies ie., advancement of sowing date during wheat season, use of short duration rice and wheat varieties, balanced fertilizer application in both rice and wheat were suggested. All the GCMS (CCSM4, GFDL-ESM2M, HadGEM2-ES, MIROC5 and MPI-ESM-MR ) projected increase in max. and min. temperature with greater uncertainty in rainfall. Two crop models DSSAT and APSIM used for impact of climate change on rice-wheat productivity. Decline in mean rice yield ranges from 8% to 23% with APSIM. However, DSSAT simulations shows both decline (4% to 19% under GFDL-ESM2M, HadGEM2-ES and MPI-ESM-MR) as well as increase (2% to 5% under CCSM4 and MIROC5). In the case of wheat, APSIM estimates show decline in mean yield (17% to 29%), while DSSAT shows an increase (6% to 15%). The single adaptation strategy of 10-days advancement of sowing in wheat is likely to results in an increase of 10-18.6 % in mean net farm returns during the mid-century 2050s, while the per capita income would increase by 6-11 %. Different adaptation packages and a set of elaborate RAPS visualizing more realistic features of the future agricultural production systems need to be tested to formulate an effective strategy under climate change and for ensuring economic viability and livelihood security of smallholders in the region.
Based on the AgMIP methodological approach, we have analysed 76 rice-wheat farms in Meerut District, which is part of the Upper Gangetic region of the IGP-India and tried to link climate-crop-socio-economic scenario of location/farmer for integrated assessment of climate change impact on agricultural productivity. The average family size of the sample households was 6.32, and average operational land holding was 1.68 hectares, which is representative of the district. Rice-wheat and sugarcane-wheat are the predominant cropping systems in the area with livestock being an integrated part of the farming system of sample households. Livestock holding is generally proportional to land holding but majority of the farmers even with tiny land holdings keep at least one milch. Based on the stakeholders interactions at various levels, the adaptation strategies ie., advancement of sowing date during wheat season, use of short duration rice and wheat varieties, balanced fertilizer application in both rice and wheat were suggested. All the GCMS (CCSM4, GFDL-ESM2M, HadGEM2-ES, MIROC5 and MPI-ESM-MR ) projected increase in max. and min. temperature with greater uncertainty in rainfall. Two crop models DSSAT and APSIM used for impact of climate change on rice-wheat productivity. Decline in mean rice yield ranges from 8% to 23% with APSIM. However, DSSAT simulations shows both decline (4% to 19% under GFDL-ESM2M, HadGEM2-ES and MPI-ESM-MR) as well as increase (2% to 5% under CCSM4 and MIROC5). In the case of wheat, APSIM estimates show decline in mean yield (17% to 29%), while DSSAT shows an increase (6% to 15%). The single adaptation strategy of 10-days advancement of sowing in wheat is likely to results in an increase of 10-18.6 % in mean net farm returns during the mid-century 2050s, while the per capita income would increase by 6-11 %. Different adaptation packages and a set of elaborate RAPS visualizing more realistic features of the future agricultural production systems need to be tested to formulate an effective strategy under climate change and for ensuring economic viability and livelihood security of smallholders in the region.
Bioclimatic Predictors of Dryland Agroecological Classes and Projected Shifts under Climate Change
H. Kaur, D. Huggins, R. Rupp, J. Abatzoglou, C. Stockle, J. Reganold
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Climatic variables play an important role in determining the status of dryland agriculture land use. We developed a methodology to delineate the REACCH (Regional Approaches to Climate Change for Pacific Northwest Agriculture) study area into agroecological classes (AECs): three dryland and one irrigated AEC using National Agricultural Statistical Service (NASS) cropland data-layer of actual land use/cover. The defined AECs were used in different statistical variable selection processes at a 4-km resolution to identify bioclimatic variables that are empirically related to actual land use. Identified bioclimatic predictors were then used to assess changes that would occur in AECs under different future climate change scenarios, given current agricultural production systems. Imposing future climate scenarios on current AECs suggests there will be shifts: (1) from stable to more dynamic AECs with notable increases in the Grain-Fallow AEC; (2) to less area as stable Annual Cropping and Annual Crop-Fallow Transition and with more area as stable Grain-Fallow; and (3) to more area as dynamic Annual Cropping and Grain-Fallow with less area as Annual Crop-Fallow Transition.
Climate and Soil Health in the Inland Pacific Northwest
J. Morrow, D. Huggins
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Mean annual precipitation (MAP) and mean annual temperature (MAT) are critical drivers of soil organic matter (SOM) levels, influencing both above ground productivity and decomposition rates. SOM is critical to many important soil processes, and subsequently an essential consideration when evaluating soil health. Consequently, climate is an important consideration both in monitoring soil health across regional climate gradients, as well as in understanding how future climate scenarios may impact soil health. The objectives of this study were to: (1) identify how MAP and MAT interact with tillage and cropping intensity to determine soil C and N levels; and (2) based on the present day relationship between MAP, MAT and soil C and N properties, project how future climate scenarios might impact SOM, and subsequently soil health. We measured multiple soil carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) properties across four agricultural sites within the wheat-based cropping region of the inland Pacific Northwest (iPNW). The four sites capture a range of tillage and cropping intensities, span a MAP gradient ranging from 288 mm to 668 mm, and a MAT gradient ranging from 8.4oC to 10.3oC. In a multivariate model that included MAT, MAP, as well as tillage and cropping intensity, MAP explained 57% of soil C variability and 69% of total soil N variability. When MAP was removed from the model, MAT became the dominant variable, explaining 42% and 49%, respectively, of soil C and total N variability. Both the acid hydrolyzable and non-hydrolyzable fractions of soil C were equally sensitive to MAP and MAT, indicating no relationship to chemical recalcitrance and climate sensitivity. A present-day climate ratio (MAT/MAP) was significantly correlated with soil C (r = -0.82) and N (r = -0.88) levels. Future climate scenarios for the iPNW translate to an increase in the climate ratio. Utilizing the present day relationship between the climate ratio and soil C and N levels, a reduction in SOM levels across the iPNW under future climate scenarios is predicted. This bolsters the need for management which promotes SOM aggradation to mitigate a decline in soil health.